Trade Signal Research - Strategy Quantative Analysis Services

Trade Signal Research

• Does your trade signal actually work?

• Is your favourite indicator really telling you anything predictive about future price action?

• Does your trading strategy really have an edge?  Or are your backtest results just a “curve fits” destined to lose you money when you trade your strategies “live”?

MicroTrends can help with answers to these questions, to help you do the groundwork before you put trading capital at risk.

• Empirical statistical investigations of price action, and its relation to your signals/indicators; Bayesian probability profiles; Backtests; Optimizations, Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses

Why not get in contact to discuss your strategy requirements:

http://www.microtrends.co/contact

Ben  Van Every

Quantative Analyst Developer

MicroTrends Ltd

Certified NinjaTrader Constulants & Partners - Indicators, Strategies & Quantative development

Ask a question at the Help Desk - Follow us on Twitter and Facebook

MicroTrends Ltd - Registered office: 71a and 71c High Street, Heathfield,East Sussex, TN21 8HU. Registered in England No: 5704475, VAT: 879 467255

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Favourite Strategies, Trading Rant, Development Update, License Model

 

My Favourite NinjaTrader Strategies are:

 

MT Generic Signals Trader

MT3 High Low Range Trader

MT ATR Breakout Trader

 

The  MT Generic Signals Trader allows you to drop on to a NinjaTrader chart any number of MicroTrends Signals Indicators or 3rd party indicatorsthat implement the Silver Bullet Interfaces and to effectively trade multple signals, aggregated into 1 signal based on the % majority you define n order to take a trade. E.g. a Open Range + Momentum Trade + Trend Trader + Volume Delta + Order Flow Analysis signals -  if 66% are long take the trade long…  its awesome and addictive - The next planned version enables you to utilise a host of filter indicators across multiple charts in real-time - another first for MicroTrends :-)

 

I like the MT3 High Low Range Trader too for day trading- however I often manually filter trades based on HTF chart levels such as year, month, weekly, daily levels/trend support and resistance.  Lining up pullbacks to zones where swing traders and position traders will be entering etc. sometimes even with a Bias Filter such as 50EMA, 200SMA or 533WMA.

I look to take trades from one side of the market to the other - often this means stepping in front of a freight train, but there are ways of using price action to determine when its correct to do so… or to stay in the current trade and go for 100%, 200% of the daily range on a trending day… MT ATR Breakout

 

I like the ATR Breakout on a 100range for FX , 10 Range for Futures - using an ATR Stop loss ( quite huge!)  to match the ATR Boundaries. and let it swing trade - amazing huge trades- but hey a lot of pain sometimes too…!

 

Trading Rant

I have yet to find a strategy that is not 10steps forward and 8 backwards though!  sometimes 24 back and 10forwards - which is where most people loose faith - that's the behaviour we need to see and by testing in real-time over a few weeks preferably you see the nature of it and understand if its for you or not.  I specialise in 4 to 6 FX markets - 1 it is cheap to trade live in when you need to trial a theory, 2 they are too big to be manipulated, 3 they display wonderful daily ATR and patterns… I am tuned into them and fish their shores…

 

Understanding the types of market day helps choose an approach… there is some middle ground which works great and not so good depending on the day - so on average its ok to good… that is the aim…  probability, expectancy governs the profit/loss  . You will hear a load of bs about winning ratios, its vanity on its own.. pure marketing hype.. I can show you a losing system that has a 85% win ratio…    you need win ratio and avg risk reward- from them you get expectancy…learn about that…. then also learn profit to maximum draw down ratio… can you stomach it?  look at maximum loses versus winners etc….   99% of what you see on the internet is pure BS!    The only way to know is to learn to try it yourself and put the hours in… who the hell are these people who want  a personal ATM for £99 without the need to learn? DREAMERS…. people the smart Vendors will take cash from in 1 minute… Don’t Dream… learn to trade like a Pro…   it might take you 3 years to 5years… so you need to use  money management from the outset to govern the cost of tuition…so you stay alive long enough to get something tangible… You have to work for a living - hard… what you put in is what you get back…   You need statistical evidence gained from direct experience with a system over many weeks of structured approach and analysis to create a belief system for whch you can trade with it…

 

Development and Support Update

We still have much to do and provide in the way of support, focus is currently on re-writing the strategy base engine used by all our strategies to remove the overfill scenario in NinjaTrader - we currently try to control it via general parameter - MT Reversal Over Fill Handling, 0 alert and close, 1 alert and try to resolve, 2, ignore - however  - we do not have enough control using the  NT intrinsic order management convenience layer -so we are refactoring right now!   The great news is that NinjaTrader in their wisdom allow an easy to use wrapper to pass orders through to the Fix layer - the same engine used by software companies charging $10K per month for a license…such as Open Quant…so it must be good eh?

 

Strategy License model

All strategies are 100% free for sim account trading  and always will be this applies for Live and Demo only NinjaTrader licenses. You don’t PAY nada!

Why should you pay if you are not making money with a strategy? There are too many "educator's/software vendors nailing traders with bs... best case advertising and excellent marketing"   The only way is via usage and direct experience - if you can use it and have tested for a long enough time you might consider live trading - but only those people who really test this stuff and have patience in the long run win, all traders who do not do this will get "killed off" by the market.. that’s a fact.

 

Our business model is not to charge then hope you don't ask for a refund within 30days and come back for another product - which is why we don’t employ loads of staff all dedicated at taking money from your pockets which is why we take more time to do stuff I guess..  Our aim is to provide you with a set of tools which enable to do a huge variety of tasks, research and learn and to decided what is good and bad for your trading etc...

With strategies only when you live trade will we ever need a license.

 

With indicators currently they are all free with Demo versions of NinjaTrader- and will have a limited free trial period on Live versions of NinjaTrader - When you need a license you will be prompted by the software.

 

Any questions or help needed please get in touch

support@microtrends.co

 

 

 

 

 

MicroTrends NinjaTrader Framework version 7.0.1.46

Audusd_100_range_27_12_2011

MicroTrends NinjaTrader Framework version 7.0.1.46 has been released

MTStrategyBase changes: A Vital update that closes overfilled positions on quick reversals whereby a stop and a close order are both filled has been resolved - simply any positions long or short after the close order has been sent is then flattened. Also, a change so that when the TradeSetup(fired) method is called it is only effective for flat positions with working entry orders - this should alleviate overfills whereby orders marked for cancel are not partially filled or filled in fast reversal/ order cancellation scenarios.
Indicators - MT Speed Bar Speed Per Minute and MT Speed Tick Speed Per Minute has been released.
MT Easy Trader - Order visualisations have been switched on by default.
MT Ninja Control Panel - has been updated to allow a user to switch off the web browser that shows the quick links and connects to google analytics. You can download the latest update from the MicroTrends NinjaTrader downloads page:
http://www.micro-trends.co.uk/ninjatrader-downloads/

Or by using the MT Ninja control panel which runs as a minimised program accessible from your Windows system icon tray next to the clock. Look for a blue icon with a white M and double click it view the control panel and use the Updates page to check and install the update. For more details please see the installation guide at: http://help.microtrends.co/

This chart was created by NinjaTrader. NinjaTrader is a FREE application for advanced charting, market analytics, automated strategy development and trade simulation. Download it now at www.ninjatrader.com

MT Ninja Control Panel Home and Google Analytics

The MT Ninja Control Panel is a small asynchronous program which runs minimised in your windows system tray - the icon list next to the PC Clock,

it can be viewed by looking for a blue icon with a white M, if you right click this icon you will see options for making it appear or exiting.

The version you should have running is V 1.0.0.5, if you have v1.0.0.4 you will need to click the exit menu so that 1.0.0.5 restarts.

The MT Ninja Control Panel provides the following tab pages:

1.       Home Page with quick links, for support, contact, purchase and user accounts - this is served by a special MicroTrends website and contains the Google Analytics (GA) tracking script- this provides us with demographics of which countries and the number of users.

2.       User page, displaying your local NinjaTrader machineid , MicroTrends User account credentials, which should be the same credentials if you registered on the MicroTrends website, these will need manually entering.

3.       License Page,  which will list your licenses associated with your MicroTrends user account - this is not currently active in  v1.0.0.5

4.       Shop Page, with links for purchasing

5.       Updates Page, Provides a utility for checking for updates, downloading and starting the update installation program

6.       Help & Support Page,  contains support links and program "about" information.

Why am I getting messages from Internet Explorer asking for permission to access http://www.google-analytics.com?

In relation to #1 on Windows Servers that have enhanced configuration mode enabled for internet explorer you may well see a message box popup which asks if you want to allow access to http://www.google-analytics.com  - see the image below.

If you visit  Google Analytics you will see it is the industry recognised and 100% safe, trusted and secure technology for providing web stats - www.google.com/analytics

It is not used to track personal or sensitive details and is used by all of our websites and 90% of the internet.

Some traders have raised this as something they would prefer not to allow access to - so I would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused or perhaps even puzzlement that Google Analytics is being used to track software usage demographics. There will be an update to the MT Control Panel to opt out of providing demographics back to Google Analytics via the  control panel Home Page.  This may be mandatory for Free users in the future unless we use a different technology which will be to simply track analytics of license usage - however GA is the best solution for us currently as it is 100% trusted and already developed and in use in all our website.

If you have any queries or feedback on this usage please do feedback.

Many Thanks

MicroTrends

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Notes to a Trainee MT3 Range Trader

Ninjatrader_performance_report

MicroTrends MT3 HILO Range Trader - Notes to a newbie trader 1-2 years.
The attached stats is of the MT3 2lots 1 short target 250 Break even + small offset, 2 long target 66% of daily ATR. targets are virtual and allow trades to trail up. Atr Trailing Stop that allows a load of room. But will catch reversals that give back too much. Session times 7AM to 16:00 – with a break between 11am and 13PM GMT - which prevents new trades- but keeps positions in.
Patterns are Top Reversal TB 7am to 16:00 2 weeks - mini lots - range 100. GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD. For those who are newbies you will get confused by the cash value – forget it– that's vanity – this is about pips... This blog was to just to answer a note from a trader... that the system wont work and they can't believe in the sense of following a plan that took every trade win or loose and then noted the results and conditions or the trade...
This is the system you couldn't stick with, you told me I am putting on trades I know wont work... what you were saying was, I have no idea what I am talking about yet and I am letting my short term experience influence and guide my beliefs so I am telling your system won't work and you don't know what you are talking about... I have lost faith in you and want to go looking else where.... I am a prima maddona and know better already... I have almost 1 weeks of stats – for the trades I bothered to note and know better than your 3 year trading record with the system...

That's exactly what I expect of traders who are new to the game – they think they know the approach and think they can stats and stick with it – without jumping off like a young gun dog after every rabbit that runs out of the hedge...

That is exactly how human nature reacts to danger - a trader learns to override that nature by experience. Your other chosen system whereby you wait for another bar as confirmation for shorts – top reversals TR structure break – SB to close with lower high and close below the low of the high -reverse for longs - Patterns TRSB BRSB - was put there alongside the 1 bar entry TR/BR
as an alternative that is easier for a newbie to swallow.... and indeed maybe as good in the long term if not better....that is your personal discovery. you need blind faith which is then proven or dis-proven over a term of time - by your record keeping... Your stats need to show all trades ideally during the day so you can see all of the potential Recency bias is what makes traders loose faith or jump in...by blindly following the system in your trade plan rules - you would have learnt that it can be a winner, however this is a hard path and takes many days/weeks to see fruit... and also the trading availability you have may mean it is never a winner or not as much as it should be. These stats have no filters with them - it is raw data of price action only... So the task is to note what elements are common in loosing trades or winning – and to write the rules for your success -test,stat, re-iterate... write your winning plan.
Go get something workable that doesn't keep you in test too long, go live and try it on a fixed risk and budget – that is the cost of tuition right there. There is no better school than experience – forget educators charging 10K,5K,3K they are only for the lazy or lost – learn for free on the sim and then use that money for live trading yourself when you see a viable system... risk and money management will provide you the budget to learn.

#1Give a man a fish, he will eat. Teach a man to fish he will eat for the rest of his life..
#2 So for all you traders asking me for best settings...please don't ask me for a fish. See #1
#3 Do any of your strategies work – send me YOUR settings – find them yourself..doh! See #1
#4 If I buy one of your race cars will I win the race? The driver and their car setup wins the race... #5 I dont have time to learn I want money now...i need to win now, just give me your secrets for $999... Give up you're dead already – trading has no time for your sort...you are doomed.
#6 I want to learn and have an open mind... Welcome to MicroTrends lets see what we can for you..
Why don't you start by relaxing and taking your time...this takes dedication and brains...

This ninjatrader performance report was created by NinjaTrader. NinjaTrader is a FREE application for advanced charting, market analytics, automated strategy development and trade simulation. Download it now at www.ninjatrader.com

Performance stats and strategies

Gc_02-12_woodies_bars_10_ticks

MicroTrends does not supply performance stats, I would not believe any stats from anyone at all ever! - unless they are proven from a live account and are NFA compliant and checked. Even then you need to know the capital used and have access to executions history. What happened in that trading - was it luck or consistency?
MicroTrends is not regulated and cannot offer advice on how to trade as such - only how to learn to use software as a tool within your trading and to see why or what can be profitable or not. The usage of it is down to the trader.
I can tell you that in the right hands many of the strategies can work well with popular Forex and Futures markets but for most the experience, skill and patience, capital required to be successful is the issue not the system.
The best idea is that you use a system to suit your psyche, gather/ test your own stats in real-time - for that reason all strategies are free for sim trading -so traders can learn how to trade mechanically and see the results first hand.
To trade professionally if that is your aim - you really need to find your own parameter sets/ gather stats and settings to trade with, you need direct proof and experience of a systems natural profile to trade it and understand you winning runs, consecutive losses/wins, drawdown's, win ratio, risk reward, expectancy and capital required to assess it as viable for you and to stick with it. Even better to diversify systems, parameter sets, time series and instruments.
Most Traders tend to start out with a trend following system, single,double,triple crossover MT2- crossovers are very popular - perhaps the ES tick chart 144, 196, 256, 512, 987 with a short target and running target could suit you. Or perhaps a 60min chart.. For mean reversion High to Low strategy such as the MT3 can work for you on a 5min,10min, 30min, or a renko 10, range 10 chart around high energy times of trading times etc..
There are some who report that they think the MT2 is great and it works for them, there are others who struggle and give up. So it's really a personal journey - all we do is faciliate that and offer support on how to use the technology features. For example you might want to scalp or to let winners runs and only trade during high volume at the open etc.
Personally I run the MT3 over a basket of Futures and Currencies as I love hitting a home run trade that goes from the low or high for the whole of the expected daily ATR. However the win ratio is very low around 30% to 35%- but risk reward very good - 99% of traders cannot stick with it. Most opt for more signals/filters and tighter targets - I am not sure how profitable it is waiting for too much confirmation or trading short targets but some prefer that method. So again you can have a winning system but it cannot be used for all traders the only way to know is to drive it yourself over a period of time with a parrallel test of markets and parametersets / time series - then assess if that's viable weekly/monthly.
The MicroTrends NinjaTrader Framework provides you with most if not all of the popular ways to trade and many more ways too. . For advanced traders the MicroTrends NinjaTrader framework allows you to mix and match many strategies/signals, weight them over multiple time frames, apply filters, nuances and consolidate them into 1 signal.. That is sophisticated and can be fairly complex, sometimes just 1 pattern on 1 chart is the best solution..

This chart was created by NinjaTrader. NinjaTrader is a FREE application for advanced charting, market analytics, automated strategy development and trade simulation. Download it now at www.ninjatrader.com

MicroTrends NinjaTrader Framework 7.0.0.45 releases

Eurusd_woodies_bars_100_ticks_

Traders, an emergency release for version 7.0.0.45 has completely removed all that "expired anti hacking functionality" and has been rolled out today. It also included many othe enhancements and features - some of which were de scoped or frozen for later completion in 7.0.0.46.

This situation will not arise again.

Please install the version 7.0.0.45, this version was completed over the weekend and tested against against replay, and live market data today, however due to the urgency of the release, please do report any anomalies, so they addressed in 7.0.0.46 – which will shortly follow.

Installation
Via the download package: http://www.micro-trends.co.uk/ninjatrader-downloads/

Or via the MT Ninja Control Panel
.
http://help.microtrends.co

After installation please - right click the M icon near clock and click exit so that the MT Ninja Control panel restarts with version 1.0.0.5 in the title bar - it will also show you which version of the Framework you have installed.

7.0.0.45 will notify you of any updates such as 7.0.0.46 - but will never expire!

Many thanks

MicroTrends Support

This chart was created by NinjaTrader. NinjaTrader is a FREE application for advanced charting, market analytics, automated strategy development and trade simulation. Download it now at www.ninjatrader.com

Framework Expired Message

Audusd_60_min_02_12_2011

Traders

I have to hold my hands up and admit that there is an issue and an oversight with some of the security features to try to prevent the friendly hackers who sell our free software to traders who pay for pirated software. Unfortunately the update that should have come out first is late and the expired date message displays and prevents use of the software after the 1st Dec 2011....which was an oversight it should have been for much later.

I apologise for the inconvenience and have taken time to re-address the code and remove this so it can never happen again, it will simply display update information and text and not disable or affect the software in this manner again.

Work is continuing over the weekend to get the update tested and rolled out for Monday 5th December.

Thank you for your patience and understanding, any issues please contact support@microtrends.co or drop by the support center at http://www.microtrends.co/support

Many thanks

Tom Leeson

MicroTrends

This chart was created by NinjaTrader. NinjaTrader is a FREE application for advanced charting, market analytics, automated strategy development and trade simulation. Download it now at www.ninjatrader.com

Woodies Bars Collection Trading Seminar

Tf_12-11_woodies_bars_10_ticks

The attached image is of a live market TF Futures Woodies pattern trade - straight off the open today a 100 tick trade on the TF is an easy $1000 for a running trade. The best way to trade this would be to use 2 lots, 1 for a near target T1, then let the 2nd run, trail along the highs or in this case the CCI Bands. The reversal trade took profit at 10:00 - then a reversal short followed by reversal long and so on. A text book trading day and around $1500 profit by 10:30AM.

To see how Woodie trades these types of patterns, bars and CCI Patterns you can attend a free seminar at November 9th at the following location: http://onlinetradercentral.com/presenter_AQRG3C.asp

NinjaTrader 7 FREE trading platform, free demo with real time data
Get a FREE trading platform, free demo account with free real time data, no risk, no funds required!
Woodies Bars Subscribers also get the MicroTrends Easy Trader Position Size, Order Entry, Advanced Trade management
To learn more about how to trade these patterns for live market trading, trade coaching, chat room membership and how to get the Woodies Bars Collection for NinjaTrader including a free demo realtime Futures and ECN Forex you can visit http://woodies.microtrends.co

This chart was created by NinjaTrader. NinjaTrader is a FREE application for advanced charting, market analytics, automated strategy development and trade simulation. Download it now at www.ninjatrader.com

Michael Cook Focus futures Performance Snapshot

Dear Trader,

MicroTrends  is an authorized broker for WorldCupAdvisor.com AutoTrade™ programs. WCA lead accounts are traded by talented professionals from around the world who have their own money on the line. Subscribers can automatically make the same trades in their own accounts.

Please review monthly data for the featured program and contact us online for more information.

 

 

            

Featured program:

Michael Cook Focus (futures)

Methodology:

Momentum, cyclical, pattern recognition, calendar spreading

Program duration:

45.36 months

Initial investment:

$20,000

Net profit:

$54,443 per unit

Net return on investment:

272.2

Peak-to-valley draw-down:

-45.5% (10/08 to 6/10)

Subscription fee:

$300

Trading futures and forex involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Performance includes open trade equity through market close, Aug. 31.

Account performance shown is for a proprietary account owned by Michael Cook and is not necessarily indicative of subscriber rate of return and drawdown due to execution, slippage, funding level and other factors. A unit is equivalent to the quantity traded by the advisor on each trade, and may vary from program to program. Net-profit calculated using initial investment of $20,000, WorldCupAdvisor.com subscription rate and standardized commission rate available through any authorized AutoTrade™ broker. There have been no cash additions to this lead account. Drawdown is the greatest cumulative peak-to-valley percentage decline in month-end net equity during the life of the account. Subscribers funding with a balance equivalent to the advisor's initial investment subsequent to the program inception date could experience a drawdown that exceeds the advisor's historic drawdown on a percentage basis. Subscribers should take this into consideration when determining the funding level of their account.